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Benfica Castelo Branco vs Oleiros — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E 2020

Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Oleiros
Oleiros
3/4/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group ECampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E · Group E - 11Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Benfica Castelo Branco53%
×Draw26%
Oleiros21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.52
Oleiros
0.86

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 77% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
1.55
Oleiros
1.00

allows per match

Benfica Castelo Branco
0.73
Oleiros
1.50

finishing

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par
Oleiros+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Castelo Branco ↓

Oleiros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Benfica Castelo Branco or draw
79%
Benfica Castelo Branco or Oleiros
74%
Draw or Oleiros
47%

Winning margin

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
27%
Oleiros wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
78%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
45%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
20%
Oleiros 1+ goals
58%
Oleiros 2+ goals
21%
Oleiros 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
71%
Oleiros (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Castelo Branco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Oleiros away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 1.55 + Oleiros defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oleiros attack 1.00 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
53%
level
26%
Oleiros scores more
21%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Oleiros

Benfica Castelo Branco beat Oleiros 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group E on March 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro in Castelo Branco.