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Oldham vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
15:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
2/27/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Boundary Park
Big match
49%
Oldham
model favours
49%25%27%

Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Oldham49%
×Draw25%
Shrewsbury27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.64
Shrewsbury
1.15

Oldham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 23 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Shrewsbury
0.87

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Shrewsbury
1.83

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
73%
Oldham or Shrewsbury
75%
Draw or Shrewsbury
51%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
26%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
81%
Oldham 2+ goals
49%
Oldham 3+ goals
23%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
68%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
32%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
65%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Shrewsbury defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shrewsbury attack 0.87 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oldham scores more
49%
level
25%
Shrewsbury scores more
27%

Oldham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oldham fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Shrewsbury outscore their xG (0.8 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Attack-heavy
Shrewsbury
Balanced
48%Possession48%
65%Pass accuracy61%
12.2Shots10.9
1.57xGBiggest gap0.49
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamShrewsbury

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Oldham
1
Draws
3
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
0–12–21–01–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Shrewsbury
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Shrewsbury (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Shrewsbury. Match starts February 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Shrewsbury at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.