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Oldham vs Salford City — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
14:00
Salford City
Salford City
9/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Boundary Park
Big match
40%
Oldham
model favours
40%25%35%

Salford City score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oldham40%
×Draw25%
Salford City35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.48
Salford City
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.70
Salford City
1.43

allows per match

Oldham
1.33
Salford City
1.27

finishing

Oldham-0.16scores less
Salford City-0.43scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
65%
Oldham or Salford City
75%
Draw or Salford City
60%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
19%
Salford City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
77%
Oldham 2+ goals
43%
Oldham 3+ goals
19%
Salford City 1+ goals
75%
Salford City 2+ goals
40%
Salford City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
53%
Salford City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.70 + Salford City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Salford City attack 1.43 + Oldham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oldham scores more
40%
level
25%
Salford City scores more
35%

Oldham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Oldham
Attack-heavy
Salford City
Attack-heavy
47%Possession50%
63%Pass accuracy65%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap14.1
1.57xG1.70
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamSalford City

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Oldham
0
Draws
4
Salford City
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
1–20–11–20–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
City
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oldham host Salford City

September 26, 2026: Oldham take on Salford City in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oldham host Salford City at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.