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Oldham vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Salford City
Salford City
12/29/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oldham40%
×Draw25%
Salford City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.48
Salford City
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.70
Salford City
1.43

allows per match

Oldham
1.33
Salford City
1.27

finishing

Oldham-0.16scores less
Salford City-0.43scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
65%
Oldham or Salford City
75%
Draw or Salford City
60%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
19%
Salford City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
77%
Oldham 2+ goals
43%
Oldham 3+ goals
19%
Salford City 1+ goals
75%
Salford City 2+ goals
40%
Salford City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
53%
Salford City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.70 + Salford City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Salford City attack 1.43 + Oldham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oldham scores more
40%
level
25%
Salford City scores more
35%

Oldham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oldham vs Salford City

Salford City beat Oldham 4-1 in League Two on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham, Greater Manchester.