Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oldham vs Harrogate Town — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
J. Leake 60'
3/21/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Oldham44%
×Draw28%
Harrogate Town28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.31
Harrogate Town
1.00

Oldham creates 31% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 48 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.32
Harrogate Town
0.90

allows per match

Oldham
1.10
Harrogate Town
1.29

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Harrogate Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
72%
Oldham or Harrogate Town
72%
Draw or Harrogate Town
56%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
20%
Harrogate Town wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
73%
Oldham 2+ goals
38%
Oldham 3+ goals
14%
Harrogate Town 1+ goals
63%
Harrogate Town 2+ goals
26%
Harrogate Town 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
61%
Harrogate Town (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.32 + Harrogate Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Harrogate Town attack 0.90 + Oldham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oldham scores more
44%
level
28%
Harrogate Town scores more
28%

Oldham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. HudsonOldhamOldham · G
8.5

Match Events

20'
Chanse Headman
46'
J. Garner← O. Hammond
51'
J. Leake← W. Sutton
52'
K. Payne← K. Drummond
58'
J. Hawkes← J. Stevens
59'
Jack Evans
60'
J. Leake↳ M. Monthe
64'
E. Acquah← J. Muldoon
65'
T. Brenan← T. Hill
65'
E. Sutton← E. Taylor
75'
L. Cass← C. Headman
77'
S. Duke-McKenna← R. Smith
80'
Joe Garner
87'
Emmanuel Monthe
90+6'
K. Taylor← R. Woods

Possession

46%Oldham

Shots

12Oldham

Pass accuracy

45%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamHarrogate
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots13
1.31Expected Goals (xG)1.22
3Corners6
6Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots13
4On Target4
5Off Target8
3Blocked1
7Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
352Total Passes413
212Accurate Passes297
60%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Oldham vs Harrogate Town

Oldham beat Harrogate Town 1-0 in League Two on March 21, 2026.

Goals: J. Leake (60').

Harrogate Town controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.