Harrogate Town 3–0 Oldham: Result & Stats

Harrogate Town

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Oldham

J. Muldoon 89', 73', 17'

1/22/2022

League Two · Round 28EnviroVent Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Harrogate Town37%

×Draw26%

Oldham37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Harrogate TownExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.31

Harrogate Town

1.32

Oldham

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 111 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

1.47

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Harrogate Town

1.19

Oldham

1.16

allows per match

Harrogate Town

1.47

Oldham

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Harrogate Town ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Harrogate Town or draw

63%

Harrogate Town or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

63%

Winning margin

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

17%

Oldham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

73%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

38%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

15%

Oldham 1+ goals

73%

Oldham 2+ goals

38%

Oldham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

50%

Oldham (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Harrogate Town at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 138 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Harrogate Town attack 1.19 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Oldham attack 1.16 + Harrogate Town defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Harrogate Town scores more

37%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

37%

Harrogate Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Harrogate Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Muldoon

Harrogate Town · F

10.0

Match Events

17'

J. Muldoon↳ L. Page

58'

H. Hope← A. Hunt

63'

Brahima Diarra

73'

J. Muldoon

79'

J. Austerfield← L. Kerry

81'

Jack Stobbs

81'

J. Hopcutt← Benny Couto

81'

C. Missilou← C. Whelan

82'

N. Sheron← L. Richards

89'

J. Muldoon↳ L. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HarrogateOldham

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots10

6Corners5

5Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target2

7Off Target3

4Blocked5

7Inside Box2

10Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

343Total Passes439

252Accurate Passes346

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2