Oldham 1–2 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Oldham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Harrogate Town

12/26/2020

League Two · Round 20Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Oldham41%

×Draw26%

Harrogate Town33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.27

Oldham

1.44

Harrogate Town

1.27

Oldham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 138 away

1.45

creates per match

1.11

1.42

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Oldham

1.45

Harrogate Town

1.11

allows per match

Oldham

1.42

Harrogate Town

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Harrogate Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

67%

Oldham or Harrogate Town

74%

Draw or Harrogate Town

59%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

20%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

76%

Oldham 2+ goals

42%

Oldham 3+ goals

18%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

72%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

36%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

55%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Harrogate Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Harrogate Town attack 1.11 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oldham scores more

41%

level

26%

Harrogate Town scores more

33%

Oldham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff