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Oldham vs Gillingham — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
15:00
Gillingham
Gillingham
12/12/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 19Boundary Park
Big match
44%
Oldham
model favours
44%28%28%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Oldham44%
×Draw28%
Gillingham28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.29
Gillingham
0.96

Oldham creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 47 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.23
Gillingham
0.89

allows per match

Oldham
1.03
Gillingham
1.36

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
72%
Oldham or Gillingham
72%
Draw or Gillingham
56%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
20%
Gillingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
72%
Oldham 2+ goals
37%
Oldham 3+ goals
14%
Gillingham 1+ goals
62%
Gillingham 2+ goals
25%
Gillingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
61%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.23 + Gillingham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gillingham attack 0.89 + Oldham defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oldham scores more
44%
level
28%
Gillingham scores more
28%

Oldham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Oldham
Balanced
Gillingham
Balanced
49%Possession47%
63%Pass accuracy63%
11.9Shots11.5
1.16xGBiggest gap0.98
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamGillingham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Oldham
2
Draws
1
Gillingham
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 20%
3–00–11–10–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Gillingham
WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham vs Gillingham — Match Preview

Oldham face Gillingham on December 12, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oldham host Gillingham at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.