Oldham 0–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

S. Vokes 71'

8/30/2025

League Two · Round 6Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Oldham44%

×Draw28%

Gillingham28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

Oldham

1.29

Gillingham

0.96

Oldham creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 47 away

1.23

creates per match

0.89

1.03

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Oldham

1.23

Gillingham

0.89

allows per match

Oldham

1.03

Gillingham

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

72%

Oldham or Gillingham

72%

Draw or Gillingham

56%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

20%

Gillingham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

72%

Oldham 2+ goals

37%

Oldham 3+ goals

14%

Gillingham 1+ goals

62%

Gillingham 2+ goals

25%

Gillingham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

61%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.23 + Gillingham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gillingham attack 0.89 + Oldham defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oldham scores more

44%

level

28%

Gillingham scores more

28%

Oldham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Morris

Gillingham · G

7.9

Match Events

1'

20'

24'

28'

55'

57'

J. Hawkes← K. Harratt

63'

66'

66'

67'

68'

O. Hammond← L. Hannant

71'

S. Vokes↳ M. Clark

79'

Joseph Gbode

83'

J. Caprice← W. Sutton

89'

Jamie Robson

90+1'

Emmanuel Monthe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamGillingham

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots8

7Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target2

6Off Target2

2Blocked4

9Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

391Total Passes317

284Accurate Passes214

73%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls16

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1