Gillingham 0–0 Oldham: Result & Stats | League One

Gillingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oldham

11/25/2017

League One · Round 20Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gillingham54%

×Draw24%

Oldham22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.00

Gillingham

1.70

Oldham

1.00

Gillingham creates 70% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 7 away

1.11

creates per match

0.71

1.30

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Gillingham

1.11

Oldham

0.71

allows per match

Gillingham

1.30

Oldham

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

78%

Gillingham or Oldham

76%

Draw or Oldham

46%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

29%

Oldham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

82%

Gillingham 2+ goals

51%

Gillingham 3+ goals

24%

Oldham 1+ goals

63%

Oldham 2+ goals

26%

Oldham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

71%

Oldham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Oldham away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.11 + Oldham defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Oldham attack 0.71 + Gillingham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gillingham scores more

54%

level

24%

Oldham scores more

22%

Gillingham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

S. Wagstaff← L. Martin

33'

Mark Byrne

40'

Dan Gardner

59'

A. Amadi-Holloway← C. Davies

64'

Q. Menig← G. Nepomuceno

68'

69'

81'

90'

Gillingham

Oldham

19

5

2

23

24

29

40

9

▼

Davies

13

Doyle

6

▼

Gardner

27

▼

13

6

2

12

33

11

▼

Martin

14

▼

8

28

9

10

Manager: S. Lovell

19'▲S. Wagstaff←▼L. Martin

81'▲E. List←▼J. Parker

Gillingham substitutes

7Wagstaff21List5Ehmer19Nugent22Chapman24Cundle26Arnold

Manager: R. Wellens

59'▲A. Amadi-Holloway←▼C. Davies

64'▲Q. Menig←▼G. Nepomuceno

69'▲P. Green←▼D. Gardner

Oldham substitutes

10Amadi-Holloway16Menig28Green4Wilson12Wilson26Clarke30Obadeyi