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Oldham vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
19:45
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
2/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Boundary Park
Big match
38%
Oldham
model favours
38%26%36%

Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Oldham38%
×Draw26%
Fleetwood Town36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.32
Fleetwood Town
1.28

allows per match

Oldham
1.32
Fleetwood Town
1.37

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
64%
Oldham or Fleetwood Town
74%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
62%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
17%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
74%
Oldham 2+ goals
39%
Oldham 3+ goals
15%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
73%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
37%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
52%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.32 · 47 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.32 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fleetwood Town attack 1.28 + Oldham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oldham scores more
38%
level
26%
Fleetwood Town scores more
36%

Oldham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Oldham play Attack-heavy, Fleetwood Town Defensively solid
  • Fleetwood Town fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Attack-heavy
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
47%Possession48%
63%Pass accuracy69%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap11.6
1.57xG1.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Oldham
3
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 100%
1–11–12–51–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Town
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Fleetwood Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Fleetwood Town. Match starts February 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Fleetwood Town at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.