Oldham vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Oldham34%
Fleetwood Town37%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 8 home / 134 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Oldham ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Oldham at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches
Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Oldham attack 0.75 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09
Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Oldham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Fleetwood Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Oldham substitutes
Head to Head
Coventry
Rotherham
Wycombe
Oxford United
PortsmouthFleetwood Town
Peterborough
Sunderland
Doncaster
Gillingham
Ipswich
Burton Albion
Blackpool
Bristol Rovers
Shrewsbury
Lincoln
Accrington ST
Rochdale
Milton Keynes Dons
AFC Wimbledon
Tranmere
Southend
BoltonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Oldham host Fleetwood Town on Tuesday, 26 December 2017 at 15:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
League One: Oldham 1–2 Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town beat Oldham 2-1 in League One on December 26, 2017.
Goals: D. Cole (50'), A. Hunter (67'), K. Bryan (82').
The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.