Fleetwood Town 2–2 Oldham: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Oldham

A. Hunter 90+3' (pen)

A. Eastham 24'

K. Bryan 55'

C. Davies 18'

9/9/2017

League One · Round 6Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fleetwood Town57%

×Draw23%

Oldham20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.94

Fleetwood Town

1.78

Oldham

0.94

Fleetwood Town creates 89% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 7 away

1.27

creates per match

0.71

1.17

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.27

Oldham

0.71

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Oldham

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

80%

Fleetwood Town or Oldham

77%

Draw or Oldham

43%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

32%

Oldham wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

83%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

53%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

26%

Oldham 1+ goals

61%

Oldham 2+ goals

24%

Oldham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

74%

Oldham (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Oldham away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Oldham defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.78

Oldham attack 0.71 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

57%

level

23%

Oldham scores more

20%

Fleetwood Town at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

18'

24'

50'

55'

60'

67'

A. Hunter← J. Hiwula-Mayifuila

72'

A. Amadi-Holloway← C. Davies

76'

W. Burns← B. Cargill

77'

Lewie Coyle

90'

Jack Ruddy

90+3'

A. HunterPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FleetwoodOldham

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots7

6Corners6

11Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots7

2On Target2

7Off Target4

4Blocked1

11Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4