Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oldham vs Doncaster — League #46 2026

Oldham
Oldham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
Z. Dearnley 86'
D. Rowe 66'
10/6/2020League #46League #46 · Group Stage - 7Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oldham34%
×Draw21%
Doncaster45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.80
Doncaster
2.10

Doncaster creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.40
Doncaster
1.80

allows per match

Oldham
2.40
Doncaster
2.20

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
55%
Oldham or Doncaster
79%
Draw or Doncaster
66%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
17%
Doncaster wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
83%
Oldham 2+ goals
54%
Oldham 3+ goals
27%
Doncaster 1+ goals
88%
Doncaster 2+ goals
62%
Doncaster 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
43%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.40 + Doncaster defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Doncaster attack 1.80 + Oldham defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oldham scores more
34%
level
21%
Doncaster scores more
45%

Doncaster at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
I. LawlorOldhamOldham · G
8.3

Match Events

46'
Z. Dearnley← D. Bahamboula
46'
J. Taylor← J. Coppinger
66'
D. Rowe
69'
B. Garrity← D. Keillor-Dunn
70'
E. Williams← T. Richards
82'
Bobby Grant
82'
G. Blackwood← B. Grant
86'
Z. Dearnley
90'
Jordan Barnett

Possession

32%Oldham

Shots

20Oldham

Pass accuracy

45%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamDoncaster
Overview
32%Possession68%
20Total Shots19
7Corners14
11Fouls6
Shots
20Total Shots19
9On Target5
9Off Target7
2Blocked7
6Inside Box9
14Outside Box10
Passing
32%Possession68%
277Total Passes578
188Accurate Passes479
68%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Oldham vs Doncaster

Oldham beat Doncaster 2-0 in League #46 on October 6, 2020.

Goals: D. Rowe (66'), Z. Dearnley (86').

Doncaster controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 20.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham, Greater Manchester.