Oldham 2–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League #45

Oldham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Doncaster

B. McKay 53'

R. Flynn 45+1'

L. Mandeville 90+4' (pen)

11/5/2016

League #45 · 1st RoundBoundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oldham47%

×Draw24%

Doncaster29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Oldham

1.71

Doncaster

1.29

Oldham creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.57

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Oldham

2.00

Doncaster

1.57

allows per match

Oldham

1.00

Doncaster

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

71%

Oldham or Doncaster

76%

Draw or Doncaster

53%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

25%

Doncaster wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

82%

Oldham 2+ goals

51%

Oldham 3+ goals

24%

Doncaster 1+ goals

72%

Doncaster 2+ goals

37%

Doncaster 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

62%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 2.00 + Doncaster defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Doncaster attack 1.57 + Oldham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oldham scores more

47%

level

24%

Doncaster scores more

29%

Oldham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. Flynn← C. Winchester

29'

O. Fane← P. Green

45+1'

R. Flynn↳ P. Clarke

46'

C. Evina← T. Garratt

53'

B. McKay↳ R. Flynn

57'

P. Keegan← H. Middleton

63'

A. Butler← J. Wright

77'

J. Law← L. Erwin

84'

Cameron Dummigan

90+4'

L. MandevillePenalty

Oldham

Doncaster

13

2

25

5

15

▼

Wright

3

▼

Garratt

17

Blair

14

▼

Middleton

9

Marquis

19

⚽

Mandevill

23

Beestin

1

Ripley

26

A

27

31

16

5

28

▼

Green

10

▼

Wincheste

8

Banks

9

⚽

McKay

19

▼

Erwin

Manager: S. Robinson

9'▲R. Flynn←▼C. Winchester

29'▲O. Fane←▼P. Green

77'▲J. Law←▼L. Erwin

Oldham substitutes

7Flynn24Fane2Law4Wilson13Kettings18Osei30Jahraldo-Martin

Manager: D. Ferguson

46'▲C. Evina←▼T. Garratt

57'▲P. Keegan←▼H. Middleton

63'▲A. Butler←▼J. Wright

Doncaster substitutes

27Evina18Keegan6Butler1Etheridge22Longbottom