Oldham 1–1 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

C. Lang 23'

G. Ray 90+3'

2/16/2019

League Two · Round 33Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oldham49%

×Draw24%

Crewe26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.15

Oldham

1.67

Crewe

1.15

Oldham creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.70

creates per match

0.97

1.33

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Oldham

1.70

Crewe

0.97

allows per match

Oldham

1.33

Crewe

1.64

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Oldham-0.16scores less

Crewe+0.03on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

74%

Oldham or Crewe

76%

Draw or Crewe

51%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

26%

Crewe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

81%

Oldham 2+ goals

50%

Oldham 3+ goals

23%

Crewe 1+ goals

68%

Crewe 2+ goals

32%

Crewe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

65%

Crewe (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.64 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.70 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Crewe attack 0.97 + Oldham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oldham scores more

49%

level

24%

Crewe scores more

26%

Oldham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

23'

43'

53'

58'

62'

67'

A. Taylor-Sinclair← H. Pickering

72'

Johan Branger

73'

Charlie Kirk

75'

J. Benteke← Z. Dearnley

75'

S. Miller← J. Bowery

90+3'

G. Ray↳ P. Ng

Oldham

Crewe

1

Garratt

12

Nolan

2

A

Ng

3

▼

Pickering

17

Green

5

⚽

Ray

15

Wintle

11

▼

Ainley

20

Kirk

7

Porter

10

▼

Bowery

1

A

26

4

23

17

28

22

9

▼

Dearnley

8

▼

Baxter

27

Nepomucen

19

⚽

▼

Lang

Manager: P. Scholes

58'▲C. O'Grady←▼C. Lang

62'▲M. Sylla←▼J. Baxter

75'▲J. Benteke←▼Z. Dearnley

Oldham substitutes

10O'Grady42Sylla14Benteke7Coke13Paz20Stott46Robinson

Manager: D. Artell

53'▲T. Lowery←▼C. Ainley

67'▲A. Taylor-Sinclair←▼H. Pickering

75'▲S. Miller←▼J. Bowery

Crewe substitutes

16Lowery31Taylor-Sinclair9Miller13Richards19Dale21Finney32Sterry

League Two: Oldham 1–1 Crewe

Oldham and Crewe drew 1-1 in League Two on February 16, 2019.

Goals: C. Lang (23'), G. Ray (90+3').

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.

Oldham vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Oldham 1–1 Crewe