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Crewe vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oldham
Oldham
M. Holicek 90'
R. Hutchinson 33'
K. Drummond 29'
3/28/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe34%
×Draw25%
Oldham42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.34
Oldham
1.52

Oldham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Oldham
1.41

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Oldham
1.16

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Oldham-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
58%
Crewe or Oldham
75%
Draw or Oldham
66%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
15%
Oldham wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
15%
Oldham 1+ goals
78%
Oldham 2+ goals
45%
Oldham 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
45%
Oldham (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Oldham defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Oldham attack 1.41 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crewe scores more
34%
level
25%
Oldham scores more
42%

Oldham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
M. HolicekCreweCrewe · M
8.3

Match Events

29'
K. Drummond↳ K. Payne
33'
R. Hutchinson↳ M. Holicek
46'
Reece Hutchinson
46'
J. Powell← J. Lankester
46'
C. Kavanagh← K. Payne
60'
J. Hawkes← J. Stevens
74'
A. Thibaut← T. O'Reilly
75'
Alfie Pond
75'
J. Leake← W. Sutton
83'
Max Sanders
90+2'
Matúš Holíček
90+3'
O. Bogle← M. H. Sanders
90'
M. Holicek

Possession

47%Crewe

Shots

18Crewe

Pass accuracy

51%Crewe

Statistics

CreweOldham
Overview
47%Possession53%
18Total Shots23
1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.67
6Corners4
13Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots23
7On Target4
6Off Target15
5Blocked4
9Inside Box14
9Outside Box9
Passing
47%Possession53%
322Total Passes356
219Accurate Passes232
68%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls9
4Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

Crewe 2 – 1 Oldham

Crewe beat Oldham 2-1 in League Two on March 28, 2026.

Goals: K. Drummond (29'), R. Hutchinson (33'), M. Holicek (90').

Oldham controlled possession (53%) and registered 23 shots to 18.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe.