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Crewe vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oldham
Oldham
C. Kirk 90+7'
J. Jones 55'
J. Smith 48'
2/8/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crewe33%
×Draw25%
Oldham42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.31
Oldham
1.53

Oldham creates 17% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.47
Oldham
1.40

allows per match

Crewe
1.66
Oldham
1.16

finishing

Crewe+0.08on par
Oldham+0.06on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
58%
Crewe or Oldham
75%
Draw or Oldham
67%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
14%
Oldham wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
73%
Crewe 2+ goals
38%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%
Oldham 1+ goals
78%
Oldham 2+ goals
45%
Oldham 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
43%
Oldham (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.47 + Oldham defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Oldham attack 1.40 + Crewe defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crewe scores more
33%
level
25%
Oldham scores more
42%

Oldham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. KirkCreweCrewe · F
8.5

Match Events

48'
J. Smith
54'
Jonny Smith
55'
J. Jones↳ C. Kirk
58'
C. Porter← C. Anene
67'
O. Dale← S. Walker
82'
J. Branger← M. Maouche
84'
C. Ainley← O. Finney
86'
Gevaro Nepomuceno
90'
Charlie Kirk
90+9'
E. Dieseruvwe← Z. Mills
90+7'
C. Kirk↳ C. Ainley

Possession

67%Crewe

Shots

18Crewe

Pass accuracy

58%Crewe

Statistics

CreweOldham
Overview
67%Possession33%
18Total Shots7
7Corners1
9Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots7
5On Target2
6Off Target4
7Blocked1
10Inside Box3
8Outside Box4
Passing
67%Possession33%
549Total Passes274
415Accurate Passes151
76%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

League Two: Crewe 2–1 Oldham

Crewe beat Oldham 2-1 in League Two on February 8, 2020.

Goals: J. Smith (48'), J. Jones (55'), C. Kirk (90+7').

Crewe controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.