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Oldham vs Colchester — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Colchester
Colchester
J. Hawkes 36'
J. Tucker 8'
8/9/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Oldham40%
×Draw27%
Colchester33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.35
Colchester
1.19

Oldham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 49 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.34
Colchester
1.12

allows per match

Oldham
1.25
Colchester
1.37

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
67%
Oldham or Colchester
73%
Draw or Colchester
60%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
19%
Colchester wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
74%
Oldham 2+ goals
39%
Oldham 3+ goals
15%
Colchester 1+ goals
70%
Colchester 2+ goals
33%
Colchester 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
55%
Colchester (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.34 + Colchester defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Colchester attack 1.12 + Oldham defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oldham scores more
40%
level
27%
Colchester scores more
33%

Oldham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
J. TuckerColchesterColchester · D
9.6

Match Events

8'
J. Tucker↳ O. Thorn
34'
Matt Macey
36'
J. Hawkes↳ J. Robson
46'
L. Hannant← R. Woods
52'
M. Fondop-Talum← K. Morris
64'
S. Tovide← J. Williams
64'
A. Read← T. Bishop
65'
K. Vincent-Young← O. Thorn
77'
J. Payne← H. Anderson
77'
A. Akande← K. Lisbie
84'
K. Harratt← K. Drummond
89'
Tom Conlon

Possession

50%Oldham

Shots

21Oldham

Pass accuracy

46%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamColchester
Overview
50%Possession50%
21Total Shots8
4.59Expected Goals (xG)0.27
8Corners7
19Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots8
7On Target3
6Off Target4
8Blocked1
16Inside Box6
5Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
291Total Passes287
186Accurate Passes211
64%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Oldham vs Colchester

Oldham and Colchester drew 1-1 in League Two on August 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Tucker (8'), J. Hawkes (36').

Oldham controlled possession (50%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.