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Colchester vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Colchester
Colchester
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Oldham
Oldham
K. Lisbie 53'
K. Drummond 90'
K. Taylor 86'
D. Daniels 8'
4/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Colchester Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Colchester43%
×Draw28%
Oldham29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.27
Oldham
1.00

Colchester creates 27% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 32 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Oldham
1.19

allows per match

Colchester
0.82
Oldham
1.22

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
71%
Colchester or Oldham
72%
Draw or Oldham
57%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
19%
Oldham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
72%
Colchester 2+ goals
36%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Oldham 1+ goals
63%
Oldham 2+ goals
26%
Oldham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
59%
Oldham (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.82 · 50 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Oldham defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Oldham attack 1.19 + Colchester defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colchester scores more
43%
level
28%
Oldham scores more
29%

Colchester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
K. DrummondOldhamOldham · M
8.3

Match Events

8'
D. Daniels↳ J. Robson
42'
Ryan Woods
46'
W. Goodwin← J. Williams
53'
K. Lisbie↳ J. Payne
61'
J. Leake← J. Hawkes
69'
K. Taylor← W. Sutton
70'
O. Edwards← H. Anderson
79'
Jake Leake
79'
J. Garner← O. Hammond
80'
R. Akachukwu← J. Payne
86'
K. Taylor↳ J. Robson
87'
T. Bishop← R. Hunt
90+2'
Kyreece Lisbie
90'
K. Drummond↳ M. Fondop-Talum

Possession

61%Colchester

Shots

15Colchester

Pass accuracy

56%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterOldham
Overview
61%Possession39%
15Total Shots9
7Corners2
15Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots9
3On Target4
7Off Target3
5Blocked2
11Inside Box9
4Outside Box0
Passing
61%Possession39%
452Total Passes284
338Accurate Passes166
75%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Colchester vs Oldham

Oldham beat Colchester 3-1 in League Two on April 3, 2026.

Goals: D. Daniels (8'), K. Lisbie (53'), K. Taylor (86'), K. Drummond (90').

Colchester controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Colchester Community Stadium in Colchester.