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Oldham vs Chesterfield — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
K. Drummond 59'
A. Lewis 21'
1/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oldham50%
×Draw24%
Chesterfield26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.71
Chesterfield
1.16

Oldham creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.39
Chesterfield
0.97

allows per match

Oldham
1.34
Chesterfield
2.02

finishing

Oldham+0.11scores more
Chesterfield+0.23scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
74%
Oldham or Chesterfield
76%
Draw or Chesterfield
50%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
27%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
82%
Oldham 2+ goals
51%
Oldham 3+ goals
24%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
69%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
32%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
66%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 6 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.02 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.39 + Chesterfield defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chesterfield attack 0.97 + Oldham defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oldham scores more
50%
level
24%
Chesterfield scores more
26%

Oldham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. HudsonOldhamOldham · G
8.9

Match Events

21'
A. Lewis↳ J. Berry-McNally
51'
Kyle McFadzean
52'
K. Drummond← K. Harratt
59'
Kane Drummond
59'
K. Drummond↳ J. Quigley
66'
Reagan Ogle
70'
J. Garner← L. Hannant
75'
Jamie Robson
75'
L. Bonis← W. Grigg
80'
D. Duffy← A. Lewis
80'
J. Fleck← J. Donacien
81'
W. Dickson← R. Darcy
89'
L. Butterfield← R. Stirk
90+2'
Kyle McFadzean
90+2'
Kyle McFadzean

Possession

45%Oldham

Shots

11Oldham

Pass accuracy

47%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamChesterfield
Overview
45%Possession55%
11Total Shots9
2.56Expected Goals (xG)0.60
6Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots9
3On Target5
5Off Target2
3Blocked2
8Inside Box5
3Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
296Total Passes374
186Accurate Passes267
63%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Oldham vs Chesterfield

Oldham and Chesterfield drew 1-1 in League Two on January 1, 2026.

Goals: A. Lewis (21'), K. Drummond (59').

Chesterfield controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.