Chesterfield 0–3 Oldham: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Oldham

K. Drummond 74', 22'

M. Fondop-Talum 31'

3/17/2026

League Two · Round 38SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Chesterfield46%

×Draw26%

Oldham29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.14

Chesterfield

1.52

Oldham

1.14

Chesterfield creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

1.65

creates per match

1.18

1.10

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.65

Oldham

1.18

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.10

Oldham

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

71%

Chesterfield or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

54%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

23%

Oldham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

78%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

45%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

20%

Oldham 1+ goals

68%

Oldham 2+ goals

32%

Oldham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

62%

Oldham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.65 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oldham attack 1.18 + Chesterfield defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chesterfield scores more

46%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

29%

Chesterfield at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

K. Drummond

Oldham · M

8.7

Match Events

20'

L. Bonis← W. Grigg

22'

K. Drummond↳ J. Stevens

26'

Chey Dunkley

31'

M. Fondop-Talum↳ M. Hudson

46'

K. McFadzean← C. Dunkley

46'

J. Berry-McNally← D. Duffy

46'

M. Owolabi-Belewu← S. Curtis

73'

W. Dickson← A. Dobra

74'

K. Drummond↳ O. Hammond

76'

K. Payne← K. Drummond

80'

J. Hawkes← J. Stevens

86'

Tom Pett

86'

K. Taylor← T. Pett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldOldham

Overview

68%Possession32%

11Total Shots14

0.57Expected Goals (xG)1.85

13Corners4

10Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots14

1On Target6

5Off Target4

5Blocked4

9Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

68%Possession32%

502Total Passes246

389Accurate Passes137

77%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2