Oldham 0–3 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Oldham

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

L. Appere 67', 60'

B. Knight 55' (pen)

1/31/2026

League Two · Round 30Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Oldham32%

×Draw28%

Cambridge United39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.21

Oldham

1.06

Cambridge United

1.21

Cambridge United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

1.33

creates per match

1.11

1.30

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Oldham

1.33

Cambridge United

1.11

allows per match

Oldham

1.30

Cambridge United

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

61%

Oldham or Cambridge United

72%

Draw or Cambridge United

68%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

12%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

65%

Oldham 2+ goals

29%

Oldham 3+ goals

9%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

70%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

34%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

45%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.33 + Cambridge United defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cambridge United attack 1.11 + Oldham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oldham scores more

32%

level

28%

Cambridge United scores more

39%

Cambridge United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Appere

Cambridge United · F

8.9

Match Events

35'

J. Quigley← J. Garner

41'

45+2'

46'

46'

55'

B. KnightPenalty

60'

L. Appere↳ J. Brophy

63'

K. Taylor← K. Drummond

63'

F. Jalo← J. Stevens

64'

M. Fondop-Talum←

67'

L. Appere↳ B. Knight

72'

S. Kaikai← B. Knight

72'

S. Lavery← L. Appere

72'

B. Purrington← J. Brophy

81'

G. Hoddle← S. McLoughlin

84'

E. Nevitt← D. Ball

87'

Shayne Lavery

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamCambridge

Overview

49%Possession51%

5Total Shots8

0.33Expected Goals (xG)2.19

1Corners0

14Fouls17

Shots

5Total Shots8

1On Target6

3Off Target1

1Blocked1

2Inside Box7

3Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

340Total Passes369

217Accurate Passes243

64%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1