Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cambridge United vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oldham
Oldham
M. Mellon 21'
9/6/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cambridge United52%
×Draw25%
Oldham23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.58
Oldham
0.95

Cambridge United creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.77
Oldham
1.18

allows per match

Cambridge United
0.73
Oldham
1.40

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
77%
Cambridge United or Oldham
75%
Draw or Oldham
48%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
27%
Oldham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
79%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
47%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
21%
Oldham 1+ goals
61%
Oldham 2+ goals
25%
Oldham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
70%
Oldham (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.77 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.58

Oldham attack 1.18 + Cambridge United defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cambridge United scores more
52%
level
25%
Oldham scores more
23%

Cambridge United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
L. HannantOldhamOldham · M
7.9

Match Events

21'
M. Mellon↳ J. Robson
40'
Ben Purrington
44'
Matthew Hudson
46'
K. Kouassi← B. Knight
57'
K. Drummond← M. Mellon
69'
E. Kachunga← J. Brophy
69'
A. Mayor← L. Bennett
69'
S. Lavery← L. Appere
72'
J. Caprice← W. Sutton
78'
Jake Caprice
80'
Shayne Lavery
82'
Elias Kachunga

Possession

64%Cambridge

Shots

13Cambridge

Pass accuracy

55%Cambridge

Statistics

CambridgeOldham
Overview
64%Possession36%
13Total Shots6
10Corners2
7Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots6
2On Target4
5Off Target0
6Blocked2
6Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
413Total Passes245
314Accurate Passes151
76%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Oldham

Oldham beat Cambridge United 1-0 in League Two on September 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Mellon (21').

Cambridge United controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge.