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Oldham vs Barnet — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
15:00
Barnet
Barnet
1/23/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Boundary Park
Big match
37%
Oldham
model favours
37%28%35%
1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Oldham37%
×Draw28%
Barnet35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.19
Barnet
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.23
Barnet
1.26

allows per match

Oldham
1.03
Barnet
1.15

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
65%
Oldham or Barnet
72%
Draw or Barnet
63%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
16%
Barnet wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
70%
Oldham 2+ goals
33%
Oldham 3+ goals
12%
Barnet 1+ goals
68%
Barnet 2+ goals
32%
Barnet 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
51%
Barnet (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.23 + Barnet defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Barnet attack 1.26 + Oldham defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oldham scores more
37%
level
28%
Barnet scores more
35%

Oldham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Oldham play Defensively solid, Barnet Attack-heavy
  • Barnet outscore their xG (2.0 vs 1.5 expected)
  • Oldham outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Defensively solid
Barnet
Attack-heavy
48%Possession57%
63%Pass accuracy66%
11.6Shots12.8
1.11xGBiggest gap1.53
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamBarnet

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Oldham
2
Draws
2
Barnet
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
2–31–10–30–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
Barnet
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Barnet (League Two)

League Two returns with Oldham hosting Barnet. Match starts January 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Barnet at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.