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Barnet vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Barnet
Barnet
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Oldham
Oldham
K. Tshimanga 87', 45' (pen)
R. Glover 36'
J. Stevens 69'
T. Pett 11'
1/24/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 28The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barnet40%
×Draw27%
Oldham33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.32
Oldham
1.19

Barnet creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Barnet
1.48
Oldham
1.24

allows per match

Barnet
1.15
Oldham
1.17

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
67%
Barnet or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
60%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
18%
Oldham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
73%
Barnet 2+ goals
38%
Barnet 3+ goals
15%
Oldham 1+ goals
70%
Oldham 2+ goals
33%
Oldham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
54%
Oldham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.48 + Oldham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Oldham attack 1.24 + Barnet defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barnet scores more
40%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
33%

Barnet at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
K. TshimangaBarnetBarnet · F
8.7

Match Events

6'
Daniele Collinge
11'
T. Pett↳ J. Garner
36'
R. Glover
42'
Donervon Daniels
45'
K. TshimangaPenalty
46'
M. Shelton← D. Jaiyesimi
60'
M. Fondop-Talum← T. Pett
64'
Nikola Tavares
66'
J. Kizzi← A. Hartigan
69'
J. Stevens↳ J. Garner
71'
Cieran Slicker
72'
K. Smith← P. Chinedu
81'
J. Hawkes← K. Drummond
83'
O. Hawkins← I. Kanu
87'
K. Tshimanga
89'
K. Taylor← J. Stevens
89'
J. Quigley← J. Garner
90+4'
Kane Smith

Possession

52%Barnet

Shots

5Barnet

Pass accuracy

50%Barnet

Statistics

BarnetOldham
Overview
52%Possession48%
5Total Shots9
1.48Expected Goals (xG)1.50
1Corners6
13Fouls15
Shots
5Total Shots9
4On Target5
0Off Target2
1Blocked2
4Inside Box8
1Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
288Total Passes245
184Accurate Passes154
64%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
3Offsides1

League Two: Barnet 3–2 Oldham

Barnet beat Oldham 3-2 in League Two on January 24, 2026.

Goals: T. Pett (11'), R. Glover (36'), K. Tshimanga (45' pen, 87'), J. Stevens (69').

Barnet controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Hive Stadium in London.