Oldham 2–0 Barnet: Result & Stats | League #43

Oldham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barnet

J. Norwood 53' (pen), 39' (pen)

1/23/2024

League #43 · Round 30Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oldham35%

×Draw27%

Barnet38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.27

Oldham

1.22

Barnet

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.10

creates per match

1.33

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Oldham

1.10

Barnet

1.33

allows per match

Oldham

1.20

Barnet

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

62%

Oldham or Barnet

73%

Draw or Barnet

65%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

15%

Barnet wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

70%

Oldham 2+ goals

34%

Oldham 3+ goals

12%

Barnet 1+ goals

72%

Barnet 2+ goals

36%

Barnet 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

48%

Barnet (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.10 + Barnet defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Barnet attack 1.33 + Oldham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Oldham scores more

35%

level

27%

Barnet scores more

38%

Barnet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

S. Sachdev

39'

J. NorwoodPenalty

52'

A. Oluwo

53'

J. NorwoodPenalty

58'

C. Stead← Z. Brunt

58'

I. Kanu← B. Coker

60'

L. Hogan

67'

M. Fondop-Talum

72'

M. Kitching

85'

J. Cropper← C. Stevens

86'

R. Hall-Johnson

89'

O. Hammond← T. Conlon

Oldham

Barnet

25

Keeley

3

▼

Coker

2

Hall-John

20

▼

22

30

14

15

18

33

▼

9

13

4

16

3

14

5

2

32

▼

Conlon

8

Lundstram

30

⚽2

Norwood

9

Fondop-Ta

Manager: M. Mellon

89'▲O. Hammond←▼T. Conlon

Oldham substitutes

26Hammond1Norman17McGahey20Hope28Walker

Manager: D. Brennan

58'▲C. Stead←▼Z. Brunt

58'▲I. Kanu←▼B. Coker

85'▲J. Cropper←▼C. Stevens

Barnet substitutes

10Stead11Kanu32Cropper5Armstrong6Okimo

Oldham 2 – 0 Barnet

Oldham beat Barnet 2-0 in League #43 on January 23, 2024.

Goals: J. Norwood (39' pen, 53' pen).

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham, Greater Manchester.

Oldham vs Barnet — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Oldham 2 – 0 Barnet