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Oldham vs Accrington ST — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
Preview
14:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
10/10/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Boundary Park
45%
Oldham
model favours
45%27%29%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Oldham45%
×Draw27%
Accrington ST29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.42
Accrington ST
1.09

Oldham creates 30% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 49 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.34
Accrington ST
0.94

allows per match

Oldham
1.25
Accrington ST
1.49

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
71%
Oldham or Accrington ST
73%
Draw or Accrington ST
55%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
21%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
76%
Oldham 2+ goals
41%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
66%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
30%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
61%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.34 + Accrington ST defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Accrington ST attack 0.94 + Oldham defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oldham scores more
45%
level
27%
Accrington ST scores more
29%

Oldham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Oldham play Attack-heavy, Accrington ST Direct / counter-attacking
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.1 vs 0.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Oldham
Attack-heavy
Accrington ST
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession43%
63%Pass accuracy63%
12.2Shots11.8
1.52xGBiggest gap0.51
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
OldhamAccrington ST

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Oldham
WLLLL
ST
DLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oldham host Accrington ST

October 10, 2026: Oldham take on Accrington ST in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oldham host Accrington ST at Boundary Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.