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Accrington ST vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oldham
Oldham
J. Robson 31' (OG)
11/29/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 18The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Accrington ST38%
×Draw27%
Oldham35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.28
Oldham
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 45 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.17
Oldham
1.18

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.27
Oldham
1.40

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
65%
Accrington ST or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
62%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
17%
Oldham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
72%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
37%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
14%
Oldham 1+ goals
71%
Oldham 2+ goals
35%
Oldham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
52%
Oldham (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.17 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oldham attack 1.18 + Accrington ST defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more
38%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
35%

Accrington ST at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
B. WardAccrington STAccrington ST · D
7.9

Match Events

21'
Farrend Rawson
25'
K. Drummond← J. Hawkes
31'
J. RobsonOwn goal
46'
C. O'Brien← F. Rawson
52'
M. Mellon← J. Quigley
52'
J. Stevens← L. Hannant
64'
Kane Drummond
66'
Devon Matthews
67'
D. Simeu← K. Payne
67'
M. Fondop-Talum←
71'
Jake Caprice
87'
C. Caton← S. Whalley
88'
Paddy Madden
90+3'
Oliver Wright

Possession

50%Accrington

Shots

7Accrington

Pass accuracy

52%Accrington

Statistics

AccringtonOldham
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots16
0.69Expected Goals (xG)0.65
2Corners6
9Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots16
1On Target5
3Off Target7
3Blocked4
6Inside Box9
1Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
328Total Passes327
215Accurate Passes201
66%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls15
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

League Two: Accrington ST 1–0 Oldham

Accrington ST beat Oldham 1-0 in League Two on November 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Robson (31' o.g.).

Accrington ST controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at The Wham Stadium in Accrington.