Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oldham vs Accrington ST — League Two 2024

Oldham
Oldham
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
J. Leake 75'
K. Taylor 64'
D. Simeu 26'
5/2/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Oldham45%
×Draw27%
Accrington ST29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.42
Accrington ST
1.09

Oldham creates 30% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 49 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.34
Accrington ST
0.94

allows per match

Oldham
1.25
Accrington ST
1.49

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
71%
Oldham or Accrington ST
73%
Draw or Accrington ST
55%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
21%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
76%
Oldham 2+ goals
41%
Oldham 3+ goals
17%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
66%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
30%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
61%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.34 + Accrington ST defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Accrington ST attack 0.94 + Oldham defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oldham scores more
45%
level
27%
Accrington ST scores more
29%

Oldham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
D. SimeuOldhamOldham · D
8.2

Match Events

26'
D. Simeu↳ K. Taylor
54'
R. Ogle← J. Garner
61'
C. Grant← I. Sinclair
64'
K. Taylor↳ T. Pett
70'
P. Madden← T. Walton
72'
J. Smith← D. Matthews
74'
J. Leake← J. Hawkes
74'
O. Hammond← K. Payne
75'
J. Leake
87'
C. Brown← L. Butterfield
90+9'
Charlie Brown
90+8'
F. McMahon-Brown← J. Robson
90+8'
I. Anderson← K. Taylor

Possession

48%Oldham

Shots

9Oldham

Pass accuracy

48%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamAccrington
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots7
1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.71
5Corners0
14Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots7
5On Target4
3Off Target3
1Blocked0
8Inside Box3
1Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
349Total Passes390
216Accurate Passes256
62%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Oldham vs Accrington ST

Oldham beat Accrington ST 3-0 in League Two on May 2, 2026.

Goals: D. Simeu (26'), K. Taylor (64'), J. Leake (75').

Accrington ST controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.