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Oldham vs Accrington ST — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Oldham
Oldham
PST
11:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Chapel Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oldham53%
×Draw23%
Accrington ST24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.83
Accrington ST
1.17

Oldham creates 56% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.33
Accrington ST
2.00

allows per match

Oldham
0.33
Accrington ST
2.33

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
76%
Oldham or Accrington ST
77%
Draw or Accrington ST
47%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
30%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
84%
Oldham 2+ goals
54%
Oldham 3+ goals
28%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
69%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
33%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
68%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.33 + Accrington ST defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Accrington ST attack 2.00 + Oldham defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oldham scores more
53%
level
23%
Accrington ST scores more
24%

Oldham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oldham face Accrington ST (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Oldham hosting Accrington ST. Match starts August 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oldham host Accrington ST at Chapel Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.