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Okwawu vs Nania — Division One League 2025

Okwawu
Okwawu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nania
Nania
3/8/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Okwawu41%
×Draw30%
Nania29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Okwawu
1.14
Nania
0.90

Okwawu creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Okwawu
1.27
Nania
0.60

allows per match

Okwawu
1.20
Nania
1.00

finishing

Okwawu+0.00on par
Nania+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Okwawu ↓

Nania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Okwawu or draw
71%
Okwawu or Nania
70%
Draw or Nania
59%

Winning margin

Okwawu wins by 2+
17%
Nania wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Okwawu 1+ goals
68%
Okwawu 2+ goals
32%
Okwawu 3+ goals
11%
Nania 1+ goals
59%
Nania 2+ goals
23%
Nania 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Okwawu (draw refunded)
59%
Nania (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Okwawu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Nania away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Okwawu attack 1.27 + Nania defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nania attack 0.60 + Okwawu defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Okwawu scores more
41%
level
30%
Nania scores more
29%

Okwawu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Okwawu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Okwawu 1–1 Nania

Okwawu and Nania drew 1-1 in Division One League on March 8, 2026.