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Nania vs Okwawu — Division One League 2025

Nania
Nania
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Okwawu
Okwawu
11/15/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nania45%
×Draw31%
Okwawu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nania
1.17
Okwawu
0.77

Nania creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nania
0.80
Okwawu
0.93

allows per match

Nania
0.60
Okwawu
1.53

finishing

Nania+0.00on par
Okwawu+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nania ↓

Okwawu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nania or draw
76%
Nania or Okwawu
69%
Draw or Okwawu
55%

Winning margin

Nania wins by 2+
20%
Okwawu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nania 1+ goals
69%
Nania 2+ goals
33%
Nania 3+ goals
11%
Okwawu 1+ goals
54%
Okwawu 2+ goals
18%
Okwawu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nania (draw refunded)
65%
Okwawu (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nania at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Okwawu away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nania attack 0.80 + Okwawu defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Okwawu attack 0.93 + Nania defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nania scores more
45%
level
31%
Okwawu scores more
24%

Nania at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nania vs Okwawu

Nania and Okwawu drew 2-2 in Division One League on November 15, 2025.