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H&W Welders vs Carrick Rangers — League #407 2026

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
FT
1 – 2
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
4/6/2019League #407League #407 · Promotion Round - 7Blanchflower Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

H&W Welders43%
×Draw24%
Carrick Rangers33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

H&W Welders
1.65
Carrick Rangers
1.41

H&W Welders creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

creates per match

H&W Welders
2.30
Carrick Rangers
1.43

allows per match

H&W Welders
1.39
Carrick Rangers
1.00

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par
Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Carrick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw
67%
H&W Welders or Carrick Rangers
76%
Draw or Carrick Rangers
57%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+
22%
Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals
81%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
49%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
23%
Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
76%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
41%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)
57%
Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.30 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Carrick Rangers attack 1.43 + H&W Welders defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

H&W Welders scores more
43%
level
24%
Carrick Rangers scores more
33%

H&W Welders at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: H&W Welders vs Carrick Rangers

Carrick Rangers beat H&W Welders 2-1 in League #407 on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Blanchflower Stadium in Belfast.