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Carrick Rangers vs H&W Welders — Championship 2018

Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
FT
1 – 4
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
12/8/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Belfast Loughshore Hotel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Carrick Rangers35%
×Draw22%
H&W Welders43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrick Rangers
1.66
H&W Welders
1.87

H&W Welders creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Carrick Rangers
1.73
H&W Welders
2.18

allows per match

Carrick Rangers
1.55
H&W Welders
1.59

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par
H&W Welders+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

H&W Welders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw
57%
Carrick Rangers or H&W Welders
78%
Draw or H&W Welders
65%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
17%
H&W Welders wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
81%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
49%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
23%
H&W Welders 1+ goals
85%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
56%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
45%
H&W Welders (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

H&W Welders away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 1.73 + H&W Welders defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

H&W Welders attack 2.18 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more
35%
level
22%
H&W Welders scores more
43%

H&W Welders at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Carrick Rangers 1–4 H&W Welders

H&W Welders beat Carrick Rangers 4-1 in Championship on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Belfast Loughshore Hotel Arena in Carrickfergus.