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OKC Energy vs Louisville City — USL Championship 2018

OKC Energy
OKC Energy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Louisville City
Louisville City
9/12/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 36Taft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy29%
×Draw27%
Louisville City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OKC Energy
1.08
Louisville City
1.40

Louisville City creates 30% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 130 away

creates per match

OKC Energy
1.05
Louisville City
1.59

allows per match

OKC Energy
1.21
Louisville City
1.12

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par
Louisville City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Louisville City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw
56%
OKC Energy or Louisville City
73%
Draw or Louisville City
71%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+
11%
Louisville City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals
66%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
29%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
10%
Louisville City 1+ goals
75%
Louisville City 2+ goals
41%
Louisville City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)
40%
Louisville City (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Louisville City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Louisville City defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Louisville City attack 1.59 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

OKC Energy scores more
29%
level
27%
Louisville City scores more
44%

Louisville City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: OKC Energy vs Louisville City

OKC Energy and Louisville City drew 1-1 in USL Championship on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Taft Stadium in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.