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Louisville City vs OKC Energy — USL Championship 2018

Louisville City
Louisville City
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
OKC Energy
OKC Energy
6/27/2015USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17Louisville Slugger Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Louisville City56%
×Draw22%
OKC Energy22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louisville City
1.94
OKC Energy
1.15

Louisville City creates 69% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 62 away

creates per match

Louisville City
2.13
OKC Energy
1.24

allows per match

Louisville City
1.05
OKC Energy
1.76

finishing

Louisville City+0.00on par
OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louisville City ↓

OKC Energy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Louisville City or draw
78%
Louisville City or OKC Energy
78%
Draw or OKC Energy
44%

Winning margin

Louisville City wins by 2+
32%
OKC Energy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Louisville City 1+ goals
86%
Louisville City 2+ goals
58%
Louisville City 3+ goals
30%
OKC Energy 1+ goals
68%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
32%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Louisville City (draw refunded)
71%
OKC Energy (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louisville City at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.05 · 151 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louisville City attack 2.13 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.94

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Louisville City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Louisville City scores more
56%
level
22%
OKC Energy scores more
22%

Louisville City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Louisville City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

USL Championship: Louisville City 6–2 OKC Energy

Louisville City beat OKC Energy 6-2 in USL Championship on June 27, 2015.

The match was played at Louisville Slugger Field in Louisville.