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OKC Energy vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2018

OKC Energy
OKC Energy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
9/26/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 40Taft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy40%
×Draw27%
Indy Eleven33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OKC Energy
1.31
Indy Eleven
1.17

OKC Energy creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 131 away

creates per match

OKC Energy
1.05
Indy Eleven
1.13

allows per match

OKC Energy
1.21
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw
67%
OKC Energy or Indy Eleven
73%
Draw or Indy Eleven
60%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+
18%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals
73%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
38%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
14%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
69%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
33%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)
55%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.58 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Indy Eleven attack 1.13 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

OKC Energy scores more
40%
level
27%
Indy Eleven scores more
33%

OKC Energy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: OKC Energy 2–0 Indy Eleven

OKC Energy beat Indy Eleven 2-0 in USL Championship on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Taft Stadium in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.