Indy Eleven 2–1 OKC Energy: Result & Stats

Indy Eleven

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

OKC Energy

8/14/2021

USL Championship · Round 27Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Indy Eleven48%

×Draw25%

OKC Energy28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchOKC Energy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.18

Indy Eleven

1.63

OKC Energy

1.18

Indy Eleven creates 38% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 62 away

1.49

creates per match

1.24

1.12

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.49

OKC Energy

1.24

allows per match

Indy Eleven

1.12

OKC Energy

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

OKC Energy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

72%

Indy Eleven or OKC Energy

75%

Draw or OKC Energy

52%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

25%

OKC Energy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

80%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

48%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

22%

OKC Energy 1+ goals

69%

OKC Energy 2+ goals

33%

OKC Energy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

63%

OKC Energy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

48%

level

25%

OKC Energy scores more

28%

Indy Eleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff