OKC Energy 1–2 Colorado Springs: Result & Stats

OKC Energy

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Colorado Springs

3/8/2020

USL Championship · Round 2Taft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

OKC Energy42%

×Draw26%

Colorado Springs32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OKC EnergyExpected goals in this matchColorado Springs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.22

OKC Energy

1.44

Colorado Springs

1.22

OKC Energy creates 18% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 133 away

1.05

creates per match

1.23

1.21

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

OKC Energy

1.05

Colorado Springs

1.23

allows per match

OKC Energy

1.21

Colorado Springs

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OKC Energy+0.00on par

Colorado Springs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OKC Energy ↓

Colorado Springs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

OKC Energy or draw

68%

OKC Energy or Colorado Springs

74%

Draw or Colorado Springs

58%

Winning margin

OKC Energy wins by 2+

20%

Colorado Springs wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

OKC Energy 1+ goals

76%

OKC Energy 2+ goals

42%

OKC Energy 3+ goals

18%

Colorado Springs 1+ goals

70%

Colorado Springs 2+ goals

34%

Colorado Springs 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

OKC Energy (draw refunded)

57%

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OKC Energy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Colorado Springs away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.82 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OKC Energy attack 1.05 + Colorado Springs defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

Colorado Springs attack 1.23 + OKC Energy defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

OKC Energy scores more

42%

level

26%

Colorado Springs scores more

32%

OKC Energy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OKC Energy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff