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Colorado Springs vs OKC Energy — USL Championship 2018

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
OKC Energy
OKC Energy
8/5/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 36Weidner Field (Colorado Springs)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Colorado Springs48%
×Draw24%
OKC Energy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.64
OKC Energy
1.17

Colorado Springs creates 40% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 62 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
OKC Energy
1.24

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
OKC Energy
1.76

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

OKC Energy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
73%
Colorado Springs or OKC Energy
76%
Draw or OKC Energy
52%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
25%
OKC Energy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
81%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
49%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
23%
OKC Energy 1+ goals
69%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
33%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
64%
OKC Energy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.64

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
48%
level
24%
OKC Energy scores more
27%

Colorado Springs at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Colorado Springs 2–0 OKC Energy

Colorado Springs beat OKC Energy 2-0 in USL Championship on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Weidner Field (Colorado Springs).