OJC Rosmalen 0–0 Hoek: Result & Stats

OJC Rosmalen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hoek

10/19/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 10Complex Groote Wielen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

OJC Rosmalen32%

×Draw22%

Hoek46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OJC RosmalenExpected goals in this matchHoek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.90

OJC Rosmalen

1.54

Hoek

1.90

Hoek creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.65

creates per match

2.03

1.76

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

OJC Rosmalen

1.65

Hoek

2.03

allows per match

OJC Rosmalen

1.76

Hoek

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Hoek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OJC Rosmalen ↓

Hoek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

OJC Rosmalen or draw

54%

OJC Rosmalen or Hoek

78%

Draw or Hoek

68%

Winning margin

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+

15%

Hoek wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals

79%

OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals

45%

OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals

20%

Hoek 1+ goals

85%

Hoek 2+ goals

56%

Hoek 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)

41%

Hoek (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OJC Rosmalen at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

Hoek away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.65 + Hoek defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hoek attack 2.03 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

OJC Rosmalen scores more

32%

level

22%

Hoek scores more

46%

Hoek at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff