Hoek 1–3 OJC Rosmalen: Result & Stats

Hoek

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

OJC Rosmalen

3/22/2025

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 27Sportpark Denoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hoek56%

×Draw21%

OJC Rosmalen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HoekExpected goals in this matchOJC Rosmalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.27

Hoek

2.11

OJC Rosmalen

1.27

Hoek creates 66% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

2.38

creates per match

1.45

1.09

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Hoek

2.38

OJC Rosmalen

1.45

allows per match

Hoek

1.09

OJC Rosmalen

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hoek+0.00on par

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoek ↓

OJC Rosmalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hoek or draw

77%

Hoek or OJC Rosmalen

79%

Draw or OJC Rosmalen

44%

Winning margin

Hoek wins by 2+

34%

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hoek 1+ goals

88%

Hoek 2+ goals

62%

Hoek 3+ goals

35%

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals

72%

OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals

36%

OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hoek (draw refunded)

71%

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoek at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoek attack 2.38 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.11

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + Hoek defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hoek scores more

56%

level

21%

OJC Rosmalen scores more

23%

Hoek at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hoek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff