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OJC Rosmalen vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Baronie
Baronie
4/2/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 27Complex Groote Wielen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

OJC Rosmalen52%
×Draw21%
Baronie27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OJC Rosmalen
2.10
Baronie
1.48

OJC Rosmalen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

OJC Rosmalen
1.65
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

OJC Rosmalen
1.76
Baronie
2.56

finishing

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OJC Rosmalen ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

OJC Rosmalen or draw
73%
OJC Rosmalen or Baronie
79%
Draw or Baronie
48%

Winning margin

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
30%
Baronie wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
88%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
62%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
35%
Baronie 1+ goals
77%
Baronie 2+ goals
43%
Baronie 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
66%
Baronie (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OJC Rosmalen at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.65 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.10

Baronie attack 1.21 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

OJC Rosmalen scores more
52%
level
21%
Baronie scores more
27%

OJC Rosmalen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "OJC Rosmalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: OJC Rosmalen 3–0 Baronie

OJC Rosmalen beat Baronie 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Complex Groote Wielen in Rosmalen.