Baronie 1–3 OJC Rosmalen: Result & Stats

Baronie

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

OJC Rosmalen

10/9/2022

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 10Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baronie31%

×Draw23%

OJC Rosmalen46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaronieExpected goals in this matchOJC Rosmalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.81

Baronie

1.47

OJC Rosmalen

1.81

OJC Rosmalen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.09

creates per match

1.45

2.18

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Baronie

1.09

OJC Rosmalen

1.45

allows per match

Baronie

2.18

OJC Rosmalen

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par

OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

OJC Rosmalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Baronie or draw

54%

Baronie or OJC Rosmalen

77%

Draw or OJC Rosmalen

69%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+

14%

OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals

77%

Baronie 2+ goals

43%

Baronie 3+ goals

18%

OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals

84%

OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals

54%

OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)

41%

OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.47

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baronie scores more

31%

level

23%

OJC Rosmalen scores more

46%

OJC Rosmalen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "OJC Rosmalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff