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Ohrid vs KF Gostivari — Second League 2019

Ohrid
Ohrid
FT
1 – 2
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
11/12/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 12Stadion Biljanini Izvori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Ohrid40%
×Draw27%
KF Gostivari33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohrid
1.36
KF Gostivari
1.21

Ohrid creates 12% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ohrid
1.79
KF Gostivari
1.64

allows per match

Ohrid
0.79
KF Gostivari
0.94

finishing

Ohrid+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohrid ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ohrid or draw
67%
Ohrid or KF Gostivari
73%
Draw or KF Gostivari
60%

Winning margin

Ohrid wins by 2+
19%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ohrid 1+ goals
74%
Ohrid 2+ goals
39%
Ohrid 3+ goals
16%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
70%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
34%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ohrid (draw refunded)
55%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohrid at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohrid attack 1.79 + KF Gostivari defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

KF Gostivari attack 1.64 + Ohrid defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ohrid scores more
40%
level
27%
KF Gostivari scores more
33%

Ohrid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ohrid 1–2 KF Gostivari

KF Gostivari beat Ohrid 2-1 in Second League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Biljanini Izvori in Ohrid.