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KF Gostivari vs Ohrid — Second League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ohrid
Ohrid
4/29/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 27Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KF Gostivari54%
×Draw26%
Ohrid20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.54
Ohrid
0.82

KF Gostivari creates 88% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 80 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.83
Ohrid
0.93

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.72
Ohrid
1.26

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Ohrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
80%
KF Gostivari or Ohrid
74%
Draw or Ohrid
46%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
28%
Ohrid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
79%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
45%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
20%
Ohrid 1+ goals
56%
Ohrid 2+ goals
20%
Ohrid 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
73%
Ohrid (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Ohrid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ohrid attack 0.93 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
54%
level
26%
Ohrid scores more
20%

KF Gostivari at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: KF Gostivari 3–0 Ohrid

KF Gostivari beat Ohrid 3-0 in Second League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.