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Ohod vs Al-Raed — Pro League 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Raed
Al-Raed
12/30/2018Pro LeaguePro League · Round 15Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ohod36%
×Draw25%
Al-Raed39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.39
Al-Raed
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 109 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.07
Al-Raed
1.35

allows per match

Ohod
1.53
Al-Raed
1.71

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al-Raed+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al-Raed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
61%
Ohod or Al-Raed
75%
Draw or Al-Raed
64%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
17%
Al-Raed wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
75%
Ohod 2+ goals
40%
Ohod 3+ goals
16%
Al-Raed 1+ goals
76%
Al-Raed 2+ goals
42%
Al-Raed 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
48%
Al-Raed (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Al-Raed away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.71 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.07 + Al-Raed defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al-Raed attack 1.35 + Ohod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ohod scores more
36%
level
25%
Al-Raed scores more
39%

Al-Raed at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Raed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ohod vs Al-Raed

Al-Raed beat Ohod 1-0 in Pro League on December 30, 2018.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.