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Al-Raed vs Ohod — Pro League 2018

Al-Raed
Al-Raed
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Ohod
Ohod
4/19/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 28King Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Raed57%
×Draw22%
Ohod21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Raed
1.92
Ohod
1.07

Al-Raed creates 79% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al-Raed
1.23
Ohod
0.60

allows per match

Al-Raed
1.54
Ohod
2.60

finishing

Al-Raed+0.00on par
Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Raed ↓

Ohod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al-Raed or draw
79%
Al-Raed or Ohod
78%
Draw or Ohod
43%

Winning margin

Al-Raed wins by 2+
33%
Ohod wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al-Raed 1+ goals
85%
Al-Raed 2+ goals
57%
Al-Raed 3+ goals
30%
Ohod 1+ goals
66%
Ohod 2+ goals
29%
Ohod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Raed (draw refunded)
73%
Ohod (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Raed at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

Ohod away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Raed attack 1.23 + Ohod defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ohod attack 0.60 + Al-Raed defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Raed scores more
57%
level
22%
Ohod scores more
21%

Al-Raed at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Raed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Raed 5 – 1 Ohod

Al-Raed beat Ohod 5-1 in Pro League on April 19, 2019.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Buraidah.