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Ohod vs Al-Nassr — Pro League 2018

Ohod
Ohod
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
8/30/2018Pro LeaguePro League · Round 1Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ohod21%
×Draw23%
Al-Nassr57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ohod
1.02
Al-Nassr
1.85

Al-Nassr creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

creates per match

Ohod
1.07
Al-Nassr
2.17

allows per match

Ohod
1.53
Al-Nassr
0.98

finishing

Ohod+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ohod ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ohod or draw
43%
Ohod or Al-Nassr
77%
Draw or Al-Nassr
79%

Winning margin

Ohod wins by 2+
7%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ohod 1+ goals
64%
Ohod 2+ goals
27%
Ohod 3+ goals
8%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
84%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
55%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Ohod (draw refunded)
27%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ohod at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ohod attack 1.07 + Al-Nassr defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al-Nassr attack 2.17 + Ohod defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ohod scores more
21%
level
23%
Al-Nassr scores more
57%

Al-Nassr at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Ohod 1–2 Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr beat Ohod 2-1 in Pro League on August 30, 2018.

The match was played at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Medina.